Question: What's the best way of predicting how often and when a volcano will erupt?

Asked by phaka1 to Anna, Daniel, Denise, Jesse, Rehemat on 13 Jun 2014.

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  1. Photo: Daniel Lao DavilaDaniel Lao Davila
    answered on 13 Jun 2014:

    Thanks to science, we can have a better idea of when volcanoes can erupt. Scientists can use satellites to monitor how changes in the ground. For example, if there is accumulation of magma under a volcano, the volcano may grow or inflate. You could see the vertical ground movement of a volcano with satellites.

    Also, scientists can monitor the seismic activity under a volcano. As magma rises under a volcano, it can produce small earthquakes. Seismometers can record these earthquakes and any increase in seismic activity can be a suggestion that there will be an eruption.

    Another way, that is more dangerous, is to go to a volcano and measure concentrations of gases that are emitted from vents. Some eruptions can be forecasted by changes in gas concentrations.

    There are other techniques, but none predict for sure when a volcanic eruption will occur.

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  2. Photo: Jesse DavenportJesse Davenport
    answered on 14 Jun 2014:

    I agree with Daniel’s answer! We can’t predict how often and when a volcano will erupt with 100% certainty and I am skeptical that we will ever be able to do this, at least with 100% accuracy. However, science has been making leaps and bounds with our abilities to learn about how volcanoes behave. Especially in Iceland, where geologists use the tools mentioned by Daniel, to create very accurate models based on ground deformation patterns, seismic activity and swarms, etc. These models have become so powerful that geologists were able to predict the 2011 eruption of the Icelandic volcano Grimsvotn a few months before it actually happened. Now, they are applying these models to some of the more active volcanoes throughout the world as well acquiring more data on each volcano. How often a volcano erupts really depends on quite a number of factors, such as where it is located. For example, volcanoes in Iceland are situated along the Mid-Atlantic ridge and therefore are constantly being supplied with magma and hence erupt quite often.

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  3. Photo: Rehemat BhatiaRehemat Bhatia
    answered on 16 Jun 2014:

    As Daniel and Jesse have mentioned there are many ways which have been suggested to predict volcanic eruptions.
    Magma movement under a volcano is called tornillos and this can be tracked using earthquakes. Spatial changes i.e. depth changes of earthquakes, can be used as an indicator of magma movement too.

    Temperature changes might also be linked to magma movement – airborne/satellite infra red images can be used to look at changes in surface temperatures of vents and hot springs, as well as magma temperature and soil temperature.

    Gravity changes linked to changes in height during magma movement and changes in electromagnetism can be measured and compared to temperature changes.

    However, as Daniel mentioned, few techniques can be used to say for certain when a volcano will erupt.

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  4. Photo: Denise De GaetanoDenise De Gaetano
    answered on 16 Jun 2014:

    Deposits let behind from past eruptions help scientists a great deal in finding clues about what happened and what might happen in the future. Areas affected by lava flows, debris flows, tephra, or pyroclastic flows can be mapped, making disaster planning more effective. This is known as long-range forecasting. Furthermore, scientists are becoming more and more skilled at spotting the warning signs of an eruption. Before an eruption, magma moves into the area beneath the volcano and collects in a magma chamber, or reservoir. As it comes closer to the surface, the magma releases gases. These events can offer valuable clues about the likelihood of an eruption. For example, the movement of magma produces small earthquakes and vibrations (seismicity). Magma gathering in a chamber causes slight swelling of the volcano’s slopes. Gases released near the volcano can be measured for changes in quantity and make-up. A very short documentary, which can help you even further is the following: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnKvO4lzJzk

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  5. Photo: Anna RabittiAnna Rabitti
    answered on 25 Jun 2014:

    Hi phaka1,
    same as for the other question on volcanoes 😉
    thanks for asking!

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